First American Properties CEO Warns of 35% Housing Price Declines, Cites Liquidity Concerns
Event summary
- Bankruptcy filings in the U.S. reached over 500,000 through November 2025, a 11% increase year-over-year, with significant rises in Chapter 7 and Chapter 11 filings.
- Existing home sales edged up 0.5% in November 2025, but remain below year-ago levels, while the median home price surpassed $400,000.
- Housing inventory remains low at roughly 1.43 million units.
- The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in December 2025, marking the third consecutive reduction.
- First American Properties CEO Michael Eisenga predicts a 35% decline in national average home prices over the next 3-5 years.
The big picture
First American Properties' assessment highlights a concerning convergence of economic stress, rising bankruptcies, and a housing market struggling with affordability despite recent Fed easing. The CEO's prediction of a significant price correction, coupled with the Fed's liquidity interventions, signals a potential shift in the real estate landscape and underscores vulnerabilities within the broader financial system. The firm's focus on strategic asset acquisition and portfolio management will be tested as the market navigates these headwinds.
What we're watching
- Price Volatility
- The pace of home price declines in 2026 will likely be influenced by the interplay between mortgage rates and buyer sentiment, potentially leading to increased volatility.
- Liquidity Dynamics
- Continued Federal Reserve interventions in short-term Treasury markets suggest underlying liquidity strains that could impact broader financial conditions and real estate financing.
- Inventory Shifts
- While First American Properties anticipates increased inventory in early 2026, the actual volume and composition of available homes will be crucial in determining the severity of price corrections.
