US Businesses Plan for Growth in 2026 Despite Economic Uncertainty

NEW YORK, NY – January 07, 2026 – Despite a landscape marked by persistent inflation, high interest rates, and geopolitical tensions, U.S. small and midsize business leaders are entering 2026 with strong optimism and ambitious plans for growth, according to JPMorgan Chase’s annual Business Leaders Outlook survey. The findings suggest that after a turbulent year, companies are shifting from a defensive posture to a proactive strategy, focusing on expansion, investment, and technological adoption.

The comprehensive survey reveals a dual narrative: a significant rebound in confidence among larger middle-market companies and a steady, pragmatic resolve from smaller Main Street businesses. Both segments are projecting revenue growth and planning to increase headcount, signaling a potentially robust year for the American economy’s core drivers.

Middle Market's Bold Rebound

Middle-market companies, with annual revenues between $20 million and $500 million, are showing a remarkable resurgence in confidence. The survey found that 71% are optimistic about their own company’s prospects, a sharp recovery from just 58% in June 2025. This renewed bullishness is translating directly into aggressive growth strategies.

A striking 73% of these firms project increased revenue for 2026, and nearly half (48%) expect to increase their workforce. These plans are underpinned by strategies aimed at capturing market share and innovating, with 58% planning to introduce new products or services and 53% looking to expand into new domestic or international markets. Furthermore, a significant number are eyeing strategic transactions, with 49% pursuing partnerships or investments and 39% considering mergers and acquisitions.

“There’s a real sense of momentum across the middle market as business leaders prepare to set ambitious growth plans in motion,” said Melissa Smith, Co-Head of Commercial Banking at J.P. Morgan, in the report. “Companies are thinking creatively about how to position themselves for the future as they navigate complex macroeconomic factors.”

This optimism, however, is tempered by a clear-eyed view of global challenges. Economic uncertainty remains the top concern (49%), followed by worries over revenue growth (33%), and the impacts of tariffs and labor shortages (both at 31%). These concerns reflect a business environment still shaped by U.S.-China trade policies and global conflicts that can disrupt supply chains and influence costs. While confident in their own firms, these leaders are less sanguine about the broader economy, with only 39% expressing optimism about the national outlook.

Main Street's Steady Resolve

In contrast to the fluctuating sentiment of their larger counterparts, small businesses (revenues between $100,000 and $20 million) have maintained a steady and resolute optimism. According to the survey, 74% are optimistic about their company’s outlook for 2026, a figure that has held firm over the past year. This stability is notable, especially as other indices, like the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index, have consistently registered below-average sentiment, highlighting persistent pain points.

While the JPMC survey paints a bright picture, with 76% of small businesses expecting revenue growth and 53% planning to hire, their primary focus remains on adaptation and resilience. Their top challenges are closer to home: inflation, which hovered at 3.1% in late 2025, and other cost pressures remain front and center. In response, these entrepreneurs are taking pragmatic steps to shore up their finances. Nearly half (47%) are focused on building cash reserves—a logical move in a high-interest-rate environment—while 36% are renegotiating supplier terms to manage costs.

“Small business owners are operating with a mix of optimism and pragmatism,” noted Ben Walter, CEO of Chase for Business. “They’re making smart investments and doubling down on innovation, setting the pace for Main Street in the year ahead while adapting to shifting market dynamics.”

This proactive adaptation is a key theme, with a remarkable 60% of owners stating they feel more positive about their business now than at any point in the last five years. Their confidence is also reflected in a lower fear of a downturn, with only 27% expecting a recession in 2026, down from 39% at mid-year 2025.

Embracing Technology to Navigate Complexity

A common thread connecting businesses of all sizes is the increasing turn toward technology, particularly artificial intelligence, as a competitive tool. The survey reveals that 59% of small businesses now view AI as essential for competitiveness within three years, and 61% expect it to help streamline their operations. This aligns with broader industry analysis suggesting that while widespread deployment is still in early stages, SMBs are rapidly moving past experimentation and toward integrating AI for marketing, customer service, and operational efficiency.

Beyond specific technologies, the survey underscores a growing recognition among business leaders that navigating the modern economic landscape requires specialized expertise. Factors like geopolitical shifts, cybersecurity threats, and complex supply chain dynamics are largely outside their direct control. This has led to an increased reliance on expert guidance to manage risk and identify opportunities.

This trend is highlighted by the establishment of advisory bodies like the JPMorgan Chase Center for Geopolitics (CfG), created to help clients understand and respond to global events. “Working with clients every day, our team has a front row seat to how geopolitical uncertainty is forcing business leaders to evaluate their short- and long-term playbooks, assessing risks and seizing opportunities,” said Derek Chollet, Head of the CfG.

As U.S. businesses chart their course for 2026, they are not ignoring the very real challenges that lie ahead. Instead, they are coupling a strong belief in their own prospects with strategic investments in technology, prudent financial management, and a deeper engagement with the global forces shaping their world. This blend of ambition and adaptation may well define the business landscape in the year to come.