AI Agents to Fuel 9.5% US Ad Spend Growth in 2026, IAB Reports

NEW YORK, NY – January 28, 2026 – The U.S. advertising market is poised for significant growth in 2026, with total ad spend projected to increase by 9.5% year-over-year, according to a new study by the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB). The annual outlook report, titled "A Snapshot into U.S. Ad Spend, Opportunities, and Strategies for Growth," attributes the bullish forecast to a powerful combination of digital channel dominance, a slate of major cyclical media events, and the rapid, scaled adoption of sophisticated artificial intelligence.

Based on a survey of over 200 brand and agency advertising buyers, the report signals a pivotal moment for the industry as it moves beyond AI experimentation into widespread, autonomous execution. This shift is fundamentally reshaping how marketing campaigns are planned, activated, and measured, pushing the industry toward a new era of efficiency and performance-driven strategy.

"Our report shows that in this growth cycle, innovation and experimentation are firmly taking priority as the market is being structurally reimagined," said David Cohen, CEO of the IAB. "The encouraging news is that buyers are still looking at 2026 as a year of growth despite a lot of potentially destabilizing forces. The industry is working with AI-powered tools that are constantly improving and are delivering both efficiency and effectiveness to marketers."

The Dawn of Agentic AI in Advertising

The defining force behind the 2026 forecast is the proliferation of what the industry is calling 'agentic AI.' This represents a significant leap from earlier generative AI tools, moving toward fully autonomous systems that act as intelligent partners for marketers. According to the IAB, these systems are capable of coordinating campaigns in real-time, managing everything from budget pacing to audience optimization with unprecedented speed and scale.

The study reveals a dramatic recalibration of priorities around this technology. Five of the top six areas of increased focus for advertisers are now directly tied to AI, with two-thirds of buyers now prioritizing agentic AI for ad buying and campaign execution. This underscores a rapid transition of AI from an emerging tool to core industry infrastructure.

"AI is no longer a siloed initiative – it's the connective tissue that links media, measurement, creative, and customer experience," explained Chris Bruderle, Vice President of Industry Insights & Content Strategy at IAB. "But what's changing in 2026 is how AI is being deployed – not just as a tool but as an intelligent partner coordinating campaigns in real time. Agentic AI is moving us toward fully autonomous systems that can plan, activate and optimize with speed and scale."

This influence extends beyond media buying into creative and content strategy. A striking 73% of marketers report they are now prioritizing content optimized for AI-generated answers, a clear sign that AI is shaping not just ad delivery but the very structure of brand messaging and its visibility on search platforms.

As AI-driven orchestration becomes the norm, the demand for accountability is also rising. The focus on cross-platform measurement has climbed to 72%, up from 64% in the previous year, reflecting a critical need to connect automated implementation with tangible business outcomes.

Digital Channels Surge as Linear TV Finds Temporary Relief

While the overall market is set for strong growth, digital channels continue to lead the charge. The IAB projects double-digit gains across several key segments, with social media ad spend forecasted to grow by 14.6%, connected TV (CTV) by 13.8%, and commerce media by 12.1%. Together, digital video and CTV are expected to command a leading 23% share of total U.S. ad spend.

In stark contrast, linear TV is forecasted to continue its decline, though at a much slower pace than in recent years. The report projects a modest 1.7% contraction for linear TV in 2026. This relative stability is a significant improvement from the 14.4% drop observed in 2025, a year devoid of major global sporting or political events.

The temporary reprieve for linear television is credited to a unique alignment of major media events, including the Milan Cortina Winter Olympics, the FIFA World Cup, and the U.S. midterm elections. These events are expected to deliver significant, albeit temporary, spikes in viewership and advertiser demand, providing short-term stabilization for the otherwise contracting channel.

Marketers Grapple with a New Strategic Playbook

As technology reshapes the landscape, marketers are navigating a new set of challenges and priorities. According to the IAB study, adapting to changing consumer habits has become the top investment challenge, cited by 44% of buyers. Closely following is the challenge of simply understanding generative AI, which was named by 38% of respondents—a significant 14-point jump from 2024, highlighting a growing skills gap in AI fluency.

This evolving environment is also triggering a fundamental shift in marketing objectives. While customer acquisition remains the top goal for a majority of buyers (54%), its dominance is waning, having declined 10 points year-over-year. In its place, a renewed focus on customer retention is emerging. The emphasis on driving repeat purchases has nearly doubled since 2024, climbing from 13% to 25%.

This rebalancing act is directly enabled by the rise of agentic AI, which allows brands to activate their first-party data more intelligently to drive personalization and loyalty at scale. As acquisition costs rise, advertisers are leveraging AI to make their retention strategies more efficient and profitable.

"Brands are clearly rebalancing their growth strategies as acquisition costs rise and first-party data ecosystems mature," Bruderle added. "AI – particularly agentic AI – is poised to enable marketers to activate those data assets more intelligently, driving personalization, loyalty, and repeat purchase at scale. With commerce media, clean rooms, CRM onboarding, and loyalty programs now reaching millions of known customers, repeat purchase is becoming a primary growth engine — not just a support tactic."

The IAB's optimistic 9.5% growth projection stands out as more bullish than the 7.2% consensus forecast from other leading industry analysts. However, the trade group notes that when the incremental spending from 2026's major cyclical events is excluded, its baseline growth forecast falls between 7.1% and 7.8%, bringing it much closer to the industry-wide consensus and painting a picture of solid, sustainable growth for the year ahead.