CREA Raises 2026-2027 Canadian Home Sales Forecast on Pent-Up Demand
Event summary
- CREA forecasts 494,512 home sales in 2026, up 5.1% from 2025, with B.C. and Ontario leading gains.
- National average home price expected to rise 2.8% to $698,881 in 2026, with provincial variations.
- 2027 outlook projects 3.5% sales growth to 511,966 units and a 2.3% price increase to $714,991.
- Pent-up demand from first-time buyers and stabilized interest rates drive the revised forecast.
- Inventory depletion risk highlighted as first-time buyers remove listings without adding supply.
The big picture
CREA's revised forecast reflects a market transition from inflation-fighting rate hikes to stabilized borrowing conditions, with pent-up demand driving recovery. The outlook underscores regional disparities, particularly in B.C. and Ontario, where sales have more room to rebound. The national average price's seventh year near $700,000 highlights persistent affordability challenges despite moderating growth.
What we're watching
- Demand-Supply Dynamics
- The pace at which inventory depletes as first-time buyers enter the market will determine price pressure in key provinces.
- Regional Disparities
- Whether B.C. and Ontario can sustain stronger growth than other provinces where supply is more constrained.
- Monetary Policy Impact
- How further Bank of Canada rate adjustments will affect borrower behavior and market momentum.