Quebec Real Estate Market Cools in 2026: Sales Dip, Prices Rise Moderately
Event summary
- Quebec residential real estate market forecasts 95,700 transactions in 2026, a 2% decline from 2025.
- Median price for single-family homes expected to rise 6% to $520,200; condominiums up 3% to $408,000.
- Montreal CMA sees 3% sales drop, while Quebec City CMA faces persistent scarcity driving 8% price hikes.
- Stable interest rates post-2023 peaks support buyer confidence but mortgage renewals face less favorable terms.
- Regional affordability and inventory levels will dictate market dynamics in 2026.
The big picture
The Quebec real estate market is transitioning from exceptional growth to a more moderate phase, reflecting broader trends of slowing population growth and affordability constraints. While stable interest rates provide some relief, persistent supply shortages—particularly in single-family homes—will continue to pressure prices. The market's resilience, however, is underscored by historically low mortgage delinquency rates and significant property value appreciation, suggesting financial stability despite the slowdown.
What we're watching
- Regional Disparities
- How Montreal's inventory challenges will affect price stabilization versus Quebec City's sustained scarcity-driven growth.
- Affordability Pressures
- Whether first-time homebuyers can sustain demand in less expensive markets amid rising construction costs.
- Mortgage Renewal Impact
- The pace at which homeowners adjust to less favorable mortgage terms post-pandemic rates.
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