U.S. Online Grocery Sales Projected to Hit $452 Billion by 2028 — NIQ Global Intelligence plc

Event summary

Online grocery sales now drive nearly three-quarters of total U.S. grocery dollar growth.
Total U.S. online grocery sales are projected to reach $452 billion by 2028, growing at an annual rate of 11.6%.
94% of grocery shoppers in 2025 used both online and in-store purchasing methods.
Online food sales jumped nearly 19% in 2025, with digital channels becoming a competitive necessity rather than an add-on.

The big picture

The shift toward omnichannel grocery shopping reflects a broader industry trend where digital and physical retail experiences must be fully integrated. With ecommerce now accounting for about one-fifth of total grocery spending, success hinges on how well retailers connect these channels into a cohesive journey. The projected $452 billion market by 2028 underscores the strategic importance of digital transformation in the grocery sector.

What we're watching

Fulfillment Speed: How retailers will adapt to increasing shopper expectations for same-day or next-day delivery, especially for food.
AI Integration: The pace at which AI-driven tools reshape grocery shopping behaviors and operational efficiencies.
Omnichannel Execution: Whether retailers can sustain seamless integration of digital and physical shopping experiences to maintain competitive advantage.