Jeonbuk National University Study Warns Current Climate Pledges Fall Short of Paris Goals

Event summary

  • Jeonbuk National University study projects 2.48 °C warming by 2300 under current climate pledges, exceeding the Paris Agreement's 2 °C target.
  • Researchers used the RICE-2010 model to simulate long-term outcomes of national climate commitments.
  • Study estimates an additional 5 gigatonnes of CO2-equivalent emissions reduction by 2030 is needed to meet the 2 °C goal.
  • Global climate-related damages could reach US$65 trillion by 2200 without stronger mitigation efforts.
  • Published in Environmental Science & Policy on December 1, 2025, with findings available online from November 17, 2025.

The big picture

The study underscores a critical gap between current climate commitments and the Paris Agreement's goals, highlighting the need for more ambitious global action. With economic damages projected to reach trillions without stronger mitigation, the findings come at a pivotal moment as nations prepare to update their climate pledges. The research also emphasizes the interconnectedness of economic growth, emissions, and climate impacts, reinforcing the urgency for coordinated international efforts.

What we're watching

Policy Ambition
Whether nations will strengthen their climate pledges ahead of the 2030 deadline to meet the Paris targets.
Economic Trade-offs
The pace at which countries balance short-term economic adjustments with long-term climate benefits.
Model Accuracy
How future iterations of the RICE-2010 model may refine projections as new data emerges.