IAB Raises 2026 U.S. Ad Spend Forecast to 12.3% Growth on Strong First Half
Event summary
- IAB raised its 2026 U.S. ad spend growth forecast to 12.3% from 9.5%, citing a strong first half driven by major events and easing macroeconomic concerns.
- Customer acquisition and brand equity became top priorities for marketers, with 63% and 43% of media investment focus, respectively.
- Adapting to AI-driven consumer behavior is now the top media investment challenge for 44% of buyers.
- Social media, CTV, and commerce media are projected to lead growth with 16.5%, 15.6%, and 13.6% YoY growth, respectively.
The big picture
The updated forecast reflects a broader industry shift towards AI-driven consumer discovery and the need for brands to reinforce equity and acquire new customers in a fragmented media landscape. The strong first half, fueled by major events and easing economic concerns, highlights the resilience of digital advertising channels, particularly social media, CTV, and commerce media. However, the rapid evolution of AI tools presents both opportunities and challenges for marketers in measuring and optimizing their campaigns.
What we're watching
- AI Measurement Challenge
- How marketers will adapt measurement strategies to track AI-driven consumer journeys and connect them to traditional performance metrics.
- Adaptation to AI Environments
- Whether brands can effectively optimize content for AI-generated answers and mitigate concerns about low-quality AI-generated content.
- Channel Fragmentation
- The pace at which advertisers will shift focus to creator partnerships, first-party data publishers, and contextual advertising to maintain visibility across fragmented discovery environments.