P/C Insurance Industry Sees Steady Underwriting Gains but Faces 2027 Slowdown
Event summary
- The U.S. P/C insurance industry's 2026 net combined ratio (NCR) is forecast at 94.0, indicating underwriting profitability.
- P/C underlying growth is expected to outpace GDP in 2026 and 2028 but slow in 2027 due to Fed tightening.
- Homeowners NWP growth is forecast at 6.4% in 2026, the lowest since 2020, with strong underwriting results.
- Personal auto NWP growth is forecast at -0.6% in 2026, the second-lowest in 15 years.
- Workers’ compensation NCR is forecast at 92.7, marking the 12th consecutive year of underwriting gains.
The big picture
The P/C insurance industry is experiencing greater stability after years of volatility, but faces a temporary slowdown in 2027 due to monetary policy and geopolitical uncertainty. Underwriting performance varies significantly by line, with homeowners and workers’ compensation showing strength while personal auto and commercial lines struggle. The industry’s ability to maintain underwriting discipline will be critical in absorbing future catastrophe losses and supporting coverage availability.
What we're watching
- Economic Slowdown
- How Fed tightening in 2027 will affect P/C underlying growth and GDP.
- Catastrophe Risk
- Whether elevated geopolitical and natural catastrophe risks will materially impact underwriting results.
- Line Performance
- The pace at which general liability and commercial auto can improve underwriting results amid persistent claims-cost pressures.
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