U.S. P/C Insurance Market Shows Resilience in 2025 Despite Economic Pressures
Event summary
- The U.S. P/C insurance industry is forecast to achieve its lowest Net Combined Ratio (NCR) in over a decade in 2025, despite economic and geopolitical uncertainties.
- P/C Aggregate Net Premium Growth for 2025 is expected at 5.9%, down from 2024's growth rate.
- Homeowners’ 2025 NCR forecasted at 99.6 points, unchanged from 2024 despite Q1 Los Angeles wildfires.
- Personal Auto’s 2025 NCR improved to 94.4 points, with Net Written Premium Growth slowing to 3.6%.
- General Liability and Commercial Auto are the only major lines forecast to remain above a NCR of 100 points.
The big picture
The U.S. P/C insurance market demonstrated resilience in 2025, with lower-than-expected natural catastrophe losses in Q3 and Q4 contributing to a forecasted decade-low Net Combined Ratio. Despite economic headwinds and geopolitical risks, the industry maintained stable growth, particularly in personal lines. However, challenges persist in General Liability and Commercial Auto segments, where profitability remains a hurdle.
What we're watching
- Economic Vulnerability
- How rising economic, political, and geopolitical uncertainty will affect P/C replacement costs in 2026.
- Premium Growth
- Whether the slowing premium growth trend will continue into 2026 amid broader economic pressures.
- Underwriting Performance
- The pace at which General Liability and Commercial Auto lines can improve their NCRs in 2026–2027.
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