Forrester Forecast: Tech Sovereignty Progress Stalls Despite Geopolitical Tensions
Event summary
- Forrester's Global Sovereignty Forecast predicts minimal growth in tech sovereignty scores from 39% in 2025 to 40% in 2030 across 14 countries.
- China and the US lead with tech sovereignty scores of 82% and 79%, respectively, maintaining dominance through 2030.
- Semiconductor manufacturing shows the strongest projected improvement, led by the US and South Korea (45% to 79%).
- Europe's largest economies remain dependent on foreign technology providers despite modest improvements.
The big picture
Forrester's forecast underscores the slow progress in global tech sovereignty amid rising geopolitical tensions. The concentration of semiconductor and software capabilities among a few nations highlights structural vulnerabilities in critical technology infrastructure. As AI competition intensifies, countries will need to navigate strategic dependencies through alliances and domestic investments.
What we're watching
- Geopolitical Concentration
- How the dominance of China and the US in tech sovereignty will shape global technology alliances.
- Semiconductor Advances
- The pace at which semiconductor production improvements reduce dependency on concentrated supply chains.
- Regional Disparities
- Whether Europe can mitigate its technology dependencies through strategic partnerships.
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