Crawford Warns of Super El Niño Threatening UK Agriculture — Crawford & Company

Event summary

Crawford & Company published a report on July 23, 2026, warning of heightened risks to UK agriculture due to a potential super El Niño.
The report predicts increased weather-related risks, including heavier rainfall, flooding, and storm activity, leading to higher agricultural insurance claims.
Secondary impacts include hindered crop establishment, soil erosion, nutrient loss, and increased feed costs for livestock producers.
Existing baseline conditions—prolonged dryness followed by wet weather—reduce resilience, heightening vulnerability across insured portfolios.
Compound weather events (drought and flooding in the same season) could increase both severity and complexity of agricultural claims.

The big picture

Crawford's report highlights the growing intersection of climate risk and agricultural insurance, a trend increasingly relevant as extreme weather events become more frequent. The evolving risk landscape underscores the need for proactive risk engineering and close engagement between insurers and policyholders to sustain agricultural coverage. With global commodity price volatility also in play, the broader implications extend beyond domestic weather impacts.

What we're watching

Climate Risk: How the interaction between threshold-driven crop responses and sequential weather extremes will shape agricultural claims.
Insurance Underwriting: Whether insurers can adapt underwriting practices to mitigate losses from compound weather events.
Operational Resilience: The pace at which UK farmers implement measures like drainage infrastructure and flexible cropping plans to improve resilience.