U.S. Home Prices Rise 1.8% YoY in August 2026 Amid Buyer Pullback…

Event summary

U.S. single-family home prices increased 1.8% year-over-year in August 2026, up from 1.6% in July.
Cotality forecasts month-over-month price declines through winter 2026, with annual appreciation expected at 1.3%.
31 metros posted negative three-month price momentum in August, up from 19 in July.
Illinois (6.8%) and Connecticut (6.3%) saw the highest annual home price growth in August.
Top markets at risk for price declines include Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY, and Cambridge-Newton-Framingham, MA.

The big picture

Cotality's August 2026 Home Price Index reveals a bifurcated U.S. housing market, with affordability constraints and shifting migration patterns driving regional disparities. The data underscores the critical role of mortgage rates in shaping home price trends, as elevated rates continue to deter buyers in many markets. The forecast of month-over-month declines through winter 2026 suggests a continued slowdown, with potential price corrections in high-risk metros.

What we're watching

Mortgage Rate Impact: How sustained high mortgage rates will affect home price trends and sales activity in 2027.
Regional Disparities: Whether affordable Midwest and supply-constrained Northeast markets can sustain growth amid broader slowdowns.
Market Risk Indicators: The pace at which high-risk metros like Buffalo and Cambridge experience price corrections.