U.S. Home Price Growth Slows to 0.4%, Widening Affordability Gap
Event summary
- U.S. single-family home prices increased by 0.4% year-over-year in March 2026, slowing from previous growth rates.
- 17 states saw new highs in price growth, while 13 experienced negative home price appreciation, led by South Dakota (-3.5%), Washington, D.C. (-3.1%), and Florida (-2.4%).
- Bridgeport, CT, posted the highest year-over-year home price increase among the 100 largest metro areas at 7.9%.
- Cotality forecasts annual U.S. home price gains increasing to 5.1% year-over-year by March 2027.
- 70 of the largest 100 metros are currently overvalued, with home price indexes exceeding long-term values by more than 10%.
The big picture
Cotality's latest Home Price Index highlights a slowing U.S. housing market with significant regional disparities. High mortgage rates are limiting buyer activity, creating a split between those with equity or cash and first-time buyers. The data suggests a potential market rebound, but persistent economic factors could dampen expected increases in home prices and sales. The strategic anomaly lies in the stark contrast between overvalued markets and those at risk of price declines, indicating a potential for correction in the near term.
What we're watching
- Mortgage Rate Impact
- How persistent high mortgage rates will affect homebuyer activity and market rebound.
- Regional Disparities
- Whether the widening gap between high-growth and declining markets will persist.
- Market Correction Risk
- The pace at which overvalued markets may correct, particularly in high-risk metros.
