U.S. Home Prices Show Regional Divergence as Market Rebalances
Event summary
- U.S. home prices rose 1.2% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month in June 2026.
- Northeast and Midwest markets showed resilience with Illinois leading at 6.4% annual growth.
- Sun Belt markets like Texas and Colorado saw continued price declines (-0.6% year-over-year).
- 15 of the top 100 markets show signs of stabilization despite negative annual growth.
- Cotality updated its HPI forecast model to version 5.0 for improved accuracy.
The big picture
Cotality's June 2026 data reveals a U.S. housing market undergoing significant regional rebalancing, with Northeast and Midwest markets outperforming while Sun Belt markets continue to cool. This divergence highlights how local economic factors—particularly job growth and industrial investments—are increasingly dictating housing trends amid elevated mortgage rates. The updated HPI forecast model suggests these patterns will persist through 2027, requiring investors and operators to adopt more localized strategies.
What we're watching
- Regional Disparities
- How the growing divide between resilient Northeast/Midwest markets and weakening Sun Belt markets will impact national housing trends.
- Economic Pressures
- Whether inflation, labor market weakness, and elevated mortgage rates will further dampen homebuyer demand in the coming months.
- Market Stabilization
- The pace at which negative-growth markets like Cape Coral-Fort Myers and Las Vegas show sustained recovery signs.