Canadian Provincial Economies Show Resilience Amid Tariff Challenges…

Event summary

Newfoundland and Labrador leads with 3.7% GDP growth in 2026, driven by higher oil prices.
Alberta and Saskatchewan forecast 1.5% GDP growth, supported by resource sectors and AI industry.
Ontario and Quebec hardest hit by tariffs, with Ontario's GDP growth at just 0.2% in 2026.
British Columbia's economy grows 1.4% despite housing constraints, supported by LNG and Asian trade.
Quebec faces demographic challenges, with GDP growth projected at 0.7% in 2026.

The big picture

Signal49 Research's analysis highlights the uneven impact of global and domestic factors on Canadian provincial economies. While energy-rich provinces like Newfoundland and Labrador and Alberta benefit from higher oil prices and resource sectors, manufacturing-heavy regions like Ontario and Quebec struggle with tariff-related headwinds. The report underscores the importance of diversifying economic drivers, particularly in provinces facing demographic and migration challenges.

What we're watching

Tariff Impact: How prolonged tariff uncertainty will affect Ontario and Quebec's manufacturing sectors.
Resource Growth: Whether Alberta and Saskatchewan can sustain their growth momentum through 2027.
Demographic Pressures: The pace at which demographic challenges will impact Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador's economies.