U.S. Global Investors Bets on Conflict, Gold as Tensions Rise

SAN ANTONIO, TX – March 13, 2026 – U.S. Global Investors, Inc. (NASDAQ: GROW) today paired a message of shareholder stability with a stark investment thesis for a world increasingly defined by conflict. While the San Antonio-based advisory firm announced the continuation of its monthly dividend, the underlying message was a strategic pivot toward capitalizing on rising global instability, focusing squarely on defense, gold, and energy.

The firm’s board approved the continued payment of its $0.0075 per share monthly dividend through June 2026, which represents a 2.76% annualized yield based on its recent stock price. However, the more significant news for the market may be the firm’s explicit positioning for a new era of geopolitical risk, highlighted by recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes in Iran.

“We believe government policies are a precursor to change, and periods of geopolitical tension remind investors why diversification across real assets and national security themes is so important,” commented Frank Holmes, the company’s CEO and Chief Investment Officer, in a statement. This philosophy now serves as the foundation for the firm’s key offerings.

A Strategy for a Tense World

U.S. Global Investors is banking on a simple but powerful premise: when global tensions rise, certain sectors thrive. The firm has aligned its specialized exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and mutual funds to capture potential upside from three key areas historically sensitive to geopolitical turmoil.

The first pillar is defense. Global military spending has surged, hitting a record $2.7 trillion in 2024, a 9.4% real-terms increase that marks the steepest annual rise in over three decades, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). This trend is expected to continue, with forecasts projecting spending to exceed $2.9 trillion by the end of the decade, largely driven by the U.S. and escalating conflicts in Europe and the Middle East.

The second pillar is energy. Historically, conflicts in the Middle East have sent shockwaves through oil and gas markets. The current instability is no exception, disrupting vital shipping lanes like the Strait of Hormuz and prompting the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to sharply raise its oil price forecasts for 2026. Brent crude prices have already surged nearly 50% this year, approaching $94 per barrel and enriching energy producers.

The third pillar is gold. Long considered a safe-haven asset, gold had a stellar 2025, with its price driven by central bank buying and investor flight to safety. The World Gold Council attributes a significant portion of gold's recent returns directly to geopolitical risk, a factor that is expected to persist and potentially intensify.

The Arsenal: A Look at the Funds

To execute this strategy, U.S. Global Investors is directing investors to a specific suite of products. The U.S. Global Technology and Aerospace & Defense ETF (NYSE: WAR), launched in late 2024, is the firm's most direct play on rising military budgets. This actively managed fund invests in companies across aerospace, defense, semiconductors, and cybersecurity. With an expense ratio of 0.60% and around $19.5 million in assets, WAR is a niche player compared to giants like the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA), but it aims to be more nimble by actively selecting companies poised to benefit from modern defense innovations.

For precious metals exposure, the firm highlights its U.S. Global GO GOLD and Precious Metal Miners ETF (NYSE: GOAU). This fund has delivered spectacular recent returns, up over 144% in the past year. Rather than holding physical gold, GOAU invests in the equities of mining companies, offering leveraged exposure to rising metal prices. The actively managed fund, with over $275 million in assets, concentrates its portfolio in what it deems to be financially disciplined royalty and mining companies, setting it apart from larger, passively managed competitors like the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX).

Finally, for energy and broader resources, CEO Frank Holmes pointed to the Global Resources Fund (PSPFX). This mutual fund provides exposure to a wide range of natural resource industries. Holmes specifically noted oil's potential in 2026. “I’d like to point out that oil was the worst performing commodities in 2025, falling nearly 20%,” he stated. “I believe the odds favor oil this year, either from supply restrictions or a decline in global interest rates to stimulate economic activity.”

Debt, Defense, and a New World Order

The company’s strategy taps into a broader macroeconomic shift that Holmes believes is reshaping global markets. “We believe the gold theme remains compelling as top countries appear to be prioritizing national security spending over trade,” he said. This observation is supported by data showing the U.S. share of global trade has been shrinking, even as its military budget proposals climb toward $1 trillion.

This pivot from global trade to national security is occurring against a backdrop of staggering government debt. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global public debt is on a path to surpass 100% of world GDP by 2028. As governments print money to finance deficits and military buildups, the appeal of fiat currencies can diminish.

“Global public debt reached approximately 94% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 and is on track to hit 100% of world GDP by 2028,” Holmes noted. “I believe this makes hard assets like gold and silver look very valuable.” This view underpins the argument for holding assets like gold, which cannot be devalued by government policy in the same way as currencies.

A Dividend Backed by Confidence

Amid this forecast of global volatility, the continuation of U.S. Global Investors' monthly dividend serves as a signal of internal confidence. The firm maintains a strong balance sheet with $26.2 million in cash and equivalents and minimal debt as of its last reporting period. This financial cushion allows it to sustain its dividend and execute share buybacks, returning capital to shareholders even during periods of operating loss in its core management segment.

While the company reported a net loss in the most recent quarter, it was largely due to a one-time tax expense that it expects to be neutralized in the current quarter. The underlying strength of its balance sheet enables the company to weather such fluctuations and project stability. By simultaneously announcing a steady dividend and a strategy geared for turmoil, U.S. Global Investors is making a clear statement: it believes it has the financial fortitude and the right investment playbook to not only navigate but also profit from an increasingly uncertain world.