F&B Brands Waste Millions Chasing a Mythical 'Average Shopper'

LAS VEGAS, NV – April 30, 2026 – Food and beverage (F&B) brands, well into their 2026 media plans, are grappling with a costly revelation: the 'average' grocery shopper they have been targeting for decades does not exist. A new series of reports from Schaefer, a paid media agency specializing in the F&B sector, argues that this fundamental misconception is causing a critical misallocation of advertising dollars across the industry. The research dissects the modern consumer landscape into three distinct profiles—social-first, TV-first, and streaming-first—each requiring a unique strategy that most brands are currently failing to implement.

The findings suggest a triple-threat of strategic errors. Brands are overspending on traditional linear television where their audience is rapidly shrinking, underspending on streaming platforms where a high-value audience has already migrated, and incorrectly measuring the impact of social media, leading to chronic underinvestment. This misalignment not only wastes marketing budgets but also leaves significant growth opportunities on the table.

"These three categories of buyers are not a spectrum. They are three structurally different advertising problems, each one requiring a different channel strategy, a different creative approach, and a different measurement framework," said Sidnee Schaefer, CEO at Schaefer, in the company's announcement. "Most 2026 F&B media plans treat them like one."

The Anatomy of Misallocation

The core of the issue lies in the widening gap between consumer media habits and corporate ad spending. Schaefer's research points to a deep-rooted reliance on linear TV, a channel that continues to receive a disproportionate share of budgets even as its audience ages and shrinks. This 'TV-first' shopper, shaped by decades of broadcast advertising, responds to brand familiarity and consistent messaging. However, this segment is no longer representative of the broader market, especially peak grocery spenders.

Industry data corroborates this trend. A Nielsen report from late 2024 showed a nearly 25% decline in metro TV ad spend for the F&B sector over the preceding decade. More recent analyses from February 2026 highlight a profound shift in consumer perception, with 41% of viewers now categorizing short-form social video as 'TV,' and 35% watching more social media videos than traditional television. This fragmentation makes reaching audiences through legacy channels increasingly inefficient.

Simultaneously, brands are failing to correctly value their social media efforts. The 'social-first' shopper discovers products through viral moments and user-generated content (UGC), exhibiting impulse-driven behavior. The problem, as Schaefer identifies, is that brands often measure success with direct click-to-purchase metrics (ROAS), failing to account for the common scenario where a user sees an ad and makes an in-store purchase days later. This flawed measurement systematically understates the channel's value, leading to insufficient budget allocation.

The Untapped Goldmine of Streaming

Perhaps the most significant missed opportunity identified by the research is the 'streaming-first' shopper. This growing consumer segment has cut the cord on broadcast television but has not fully adopted the social-media-driven discovery habits of the younger demographic. They are a prime audience, often representing premium F&B buyers, who are highly reachable through connected TV (CTV) and other streaming ad formats.

"The streaming-first shopper represents the most underfunded opportunity in F&B media right now," noted Seth Waite, Chief Strategist at Schaefer. "Brands know CTV is growing. Most still haven't moved budget to match."

Leading F&B giants are already acting on this shift. PepsiCo, for example, has been publicly accelerating its reallocation of media budgets from linear TV to streaming and digital platforms since as early as 2020. The company's media executives have highlighted shoppable advertising and live events on streaming platforms as key components of their new CTV initiatives. This strategic pivot by an industry leader underscores the validity of the trend and the urgency for other brands to follow suit. By failing to invest adequately in streaming, companies are effectively ignoring a large and growing portion of their potential customer base that is no longer accessible through traditional means.

Beyond Clicks: A Precision Playbook for a Segmented World

Schaefer’s research serves as a call to action for a more sophisticated, data-driven approach to F&B advertising. The solution to the misallocation problem is not simply shifting budgets, but fundamentally rethinking measurement and strategy for each distinct channel.

For the 'social-first' segment, this means moving beyond simplistic last-click attribution. The industry is seeing a push towards more advanced measurement techniques like Offline Conversion Tracking (OCT), which connects digital ad exposure to real-world in-store purchases. By uploading anonymized sales data, brands can match in-store transactions back to users who saw their social media campaigns, providing a far more accurate picture of ROI. With UGC influencing an estimated 90% of shopper decisions, correctly valuing this channel is paramount.

This move towards precision is reflected in broader CPG trends, where major players like Procter & Gamble and Diageo are shifting significant ad budgets toward retail media networks. These networks offer closed-loop ecosystems where brands can target consumers and directly measure the impact on sales within the same platform, bridging the gap between discovery and purchase.

Ultimately, the dismantling of the 'average shopper' myth forces brands to adopt a more granular strategy. It requires understanding that a campaign optimized for a TV-first buyer will likely fail with a social-first one. By tailoring creative, messaging, and measurement to each distinct profile, F&B companies can move away from broad-stroke campaigns and begin to maximize the impact of every advertising dollar spent in a complex and fragmented media landscape.