Beyond the Mega-Merger: Ayvens Bets on AI and Used EVs for 2029

PARIS – September 21, 2026 – For the past three years, the mobility sector has closely watched the €4.8 billion integration of LeasePlan into ALD Automotive. The resulting behemoth, Ayvens, emerged as the world’s largest multi-brand fleet manager. But in the business of commercialization, achieving scale is merely the prototype phase. The true test is translating that massive footprint into sustained profitability.

Today, Ayvens unveiled its 2029 strategic plan, signaling a definitive shift from post-merger integration to aggressive operational execution. The roadmap upgrades core financial targets, projecting a Return on Tangible Equity (ROTE) between 14% and 16% and driving its cost-to-income ratio down to approximately 49%. For investors and industry analysts, the plan outlines a complex balancing act: deploying artificial intelligence to squeeze out margins while navigating a volatile electric vehicle (EV) transition and an overall contraction in European auto sales.

“As the execution of the PowerUP 2026 plan is about to reach its successful conclusion with the integration of ALD and LeasePlan and the delivery of strong financial results, Ayvens will now enter into a new development phase based on resuming profitable growth and putting operational excellence at the heart of all our processes and actions,” stated Philippe de Rovira, CEO of Ayvens.

Pivoting to AI and Operational Leverage

During the pandemic-era supply chain crunch, fleet lessors enjoyed windfall profits from used-car sales. Vehicles coming off lease were sold into a starved secondary market at premium prices. That era is definitively over. Ayvens’ gross used-car disposal profits, which frequently topped €1,400 per unit in 2024, plummeted to €326 in the second quarter of 2026, resulting in a net negative contribution as the market normalized.

Recognizing that these cyclical windfalls can no longer anchor the balance sheet, Ayvens is pivoting hard toward operational leverage. The company’s "Excel" pillar targets a steady decrease in operating expenses, driven by a radical restructuring of its IT landscape. Management plans to reduce the company's IT intensity ratio from roughly 15% to 12%.

This reduction is not merely a cost-cutting exercise; it is the long-awaited dividend of the LeasePlan integration. By decommissioning duplicative legacy platforms and consolidating data centers, Ayvens is freeing up capital to deploy generative AI and robotic process automation. The company expects to achieve a 30% efficiency gain across eight core processes spanning commerce, finance, and operations.

Industry insiders note that automating workflows—such as machine-vision vehicle damage assessments, algorithmic repair authorizations, and predictive maintenance scheduling—is critical to offsetting new industry headwinds. The transition to battery electric vehicles (BEVs), which require significantly fewer consumable parts like oil or spark plugs, is compressing traditional maintenance margins. Management projects this electrification and inflation dynamic will create a 5-percentage-point drag on its cost-to-income ratio by 2029. However, the company expects its AI-driven productivity gains and targeted procurement strategies to more than offset this, ultimately improving the overall ratio by 4 percentage points.

The 100,000-Vehicle Used EV Gamble

Perhaps the most scrutinized element of the 2029 roadmap is the strategy to manage the residual value crisis currently paralyzing the electric vehicle market. First-generation BEVs suffer from steep depreciation curves, driven by rapid technological obsolescence and aggressive retail price cuts from manufacturers scrambling for market share.

Dumping three-year-old electric vehicles into a depressed wholesale auction market crystallizes painful losses for fleet managers. Ayvens’ solution is a massive expansion of its multi-cycle leasing model. Under its "Transform" pillar, the company is targeting a 13% compound annual growth rate in the used car lease market between 2026 and 2029, aiming to build an active second-hand fleet of over 100,000 vehicles.

Instead of selling a defleeted BEV, Ayvens will re-lease the asset for a second cycle of 24 to 36 months. Because the steepest depreciation has already been absorbed, the business can offer highly competitive monthly rates to retail and SME customers who are currently priced out of the new EV market.

"Multi-cycle leasing is essentially a financial hedge against battery depreciation," noted one automotive equity analyst following the announcement. "If they can keep the asset generating yield for six or seven years, they completely bypass the auction market bloodbath while solving the consumer affordability bottleneck in Europe."

This circular economy approach is bolstered by a commitment to reducing leased fleet CO2 emissions from 101g/km in 2025 to between 75 and 85g/km in 2029. To support this electrified fleet, Ayvens is also rapidly expanding its proprietary EV charging solution, Ayvens Power, from two countries to 15, capturing ancillary software and charging tariff margins to further boost profitability.

Defying Macro Contraction: Fleet vs. Factory

The growth projections outlined today stand in stark contrast to the broader macroeconomic reality of the European automotive sector. The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) forecasts that passenger car registrations will decline from 13.3 million in 2025 to 12.5 million by 2030. Yet, Ayvens aims to grow its funded fleet by at least 3% between 2026 and 2029, with earning assets expected to jump by roughly 10%.

This divergence highlights a structural shift in how mobility is consumed. Corporate mobility outsourcing, commercial vehicle leasing, and retail subscription services are detaching from traditional auto retail demand. While traditional automakers face plant overcapacity and softening showroom traffic, fleet managers are capturing a larger slice of the mobility pie.

Ayvens is heavily targeting the retail segment, projecting a 15% growth to reach over 900,000 vehicles by 2029. Simultaneously, it plans to expand its light commercial vehicle (LCV) fleet by 10% to over 580,000 units. The LCV growth is particularly strategic, capitalizing on last-mile delivery demands and corporate mandates to electrify logistics fleets—customers who rely heavily on customized shelving, refrigeration, and specialized maintenance service level agreements.

Capital Returns and Competitive Realities

Ultimately, the success of the 2029 strategic plan will be judged by shareholder returns. The board has upgraded its dividend payout ratio to between 50% and 60% of net income, alongside a commitment to return excess capital to shareholders once its Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio exceeds the targeted 12.5% cruising level.

This robust capital distribution policy is not just a perk for public investors; it is a vital mechanism for its majority shareholder, Societe Generale. The French banking giant relies on capital extraction from its highly cash-generative mobility division to sustain its own group-wide distribution commitments. Ayvens has structurally lowered its reliance on parent liquidity by diversifying its funding mix, projecting annual volumes of €1 billion to €2 billion in retail deposits, €1 billion to €2 billion in securitizations, and €2 billion to €3 billion in bond issuances.

However, the path to 2029 is not without competitive friction. The European fleet leasing landscape has consolidated into a high-stakes duopoly. In July 2026, BNP Paribas’ leasing arm, Arval, closed its acquisition of Athlon from Mercedes-Benz Group, creating a combined entity of 2.3 million vehicles. This rival conglomerate is systematically challenging Ayvens’ post-merger scale advantages, particularly in negotiating crucial procurement discounts from automakers.

As Ayvens transitions from the heavy lifting of the LeasePlan integration to the execution of its 2029 roadmap, the stakes are undeniably high. By betting heavily on AI-driven cost reductions and a novel approach to the second-hand EV market, the organization is attempting to rewrite the economics of fleet management. For observers tracking the journey from prototype to profit, Ayvens offers a masterclass in adapting to structural industry shifts while ruthlessly prioritizing the bottom line.