Freight Rates Surge Despite Volume Decline as Capacity Tightens
Event summary
- National shipment volumes rose 1.5% quarter-over-quarter but fell 4.9% year-over-year, marking the fifteenth consecutive quarter of annual decline.
- Shipper spending jumped 4.6% sequentially and 5.2% annually—the first year-over-year increase in three years—despite diesel prices averaging 5.2 cents per gallon lower than Q3.
- Regional performance varied: Southwest saw a 12.6% sequential spending increase despite a 25.4% volume decline, while Northeast led with 12.1% year-over-year shipment growth.
- Total freight levels declined 9.9% in 2025 from 2024, less than half the 20.4% annual decline in 2024.
The big picture
The U.S. truck freight market is experiencing a paradox: tightening capacity is driving up rates even as shipment volumes remain soft. This reflects broader industry contraction, with fleet exits and carrier adjustments responding to prolonged demand headwinds. The first year-over-year spending increase in three years signals rate pressure that could persist if capacity constraints worsen.
What we're watching
- Capacity Dynamics
- How prolonged fleet exits and carrier roster reductions will affect freight rates in early 2026.
- Regional Disparities
- Whether the Southwest's acute capacity pressures will spread to other regions.
- Economic Indicators
- The pace at which manufacturing and consumer spending recover, influencing freight demand.