GTA Home Sales and Prices to Stabilize in 2026 Amid Affordability Pressures
Event summary
- TRREB forecasts GTA home sales between 60,000 and 70,000 transactions in 2026, similar to the past three years.
- Average home prices expected to range between $1 million and $1.03 million, with potential stabilization in the second half of the year.
- Ipsos polling shows 22% of GTA residents plan to buy a home in 2026, down from 27% in 2025, highlighting economic uncertainty.
- First-time buyers may drive recovery, with 45% of intending homebuyers in 2026 being first-time buyers.
- January 2026 home sales dropped 19.3% year-over-year, with the average selling price down 6.5% to $973,289.
The big picture
The GTA housing market in 2026 reflects a tension between improved affordability and persistent economic uncertainty. Elevated supply levels are expected to keep price growth in check, while cautious consumer sentiment may delay pent-up demand. The market's stability hinges on economic resilience and policy actions addressing housing delivery and affordability challenges.
What we're watching
- Economic Clarity
- How greater economic clarity will affect consumer confidence and homebuying decisions.
- First-Time Buyers
- Whether first-time buyers can sustain demand and stabilize the market.
- Rental Demand
- The pace at which rental demand will transition into homeownership amid affordability gaps.