Americans Shift Caffeine Habits, Favoring Barista Drinks and Energy Boosts
Event summary
- Toast's Restaurant Trends Report reveals a decline in sales of traditional coffee staples like drip coffee (-3.3%) and cold brew (-2.2%) in 2025.
- Sales of barista-crafted drinks, including lattes (+4.0%), espresso shots (+3.3%), and Americanos (+1.4%), increased during the same period.
- Energy drink sales surged by 8.7%, and diet soda sales rose by 7.4%, indicating a shift towards convenient caffeine options.
- Tipping rates remained stable at 19.2% for full-service restaurants and 15.8% for quick-service restaurants in Q4 2025.
- Delaware continues to have the highest average tip (21.8%), while California remains the lowest (17.2%).
The big picture
Toast's data highlights a significant shift in American coffee consumption, driven by a combination of price sensitivity, a desire for convenience, and a willingness to pay for premium experiences. This trend suggests a potential bifurcation in the coffee market, with traditional staples facing pressure while specialty drinks and ready-to-drink alternatives gain traction. The data also underscores the importance of pricing strategies and product innovation for restaurants navigating inflationary pressures.
What we're watching
- Pricing Dynamics
- Whether the increased preference for barista-made drinks is sustainable as input costs and menu prices remain elevated, or if consumers will eventually trade down.
- Convenience Factor
- How the growth in energy drink sales will impact the broader coffee market and whether established coffee chains can effectively compete with ready-to-drink alternatives.
- At-Home Habits
- The pace at which increasing adoption of home espresso machines will erode demand for specialty coffee shop beverages.
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