Canadian Home Sales Dip 2.7% in December 2025, Annual Transactions Down 1.9%

Event summary

  • Canadian home sales declined 2.7% month-over-month in December 2025, with annual transactions totaling 470,314 units, down 1.9% from 2024.
  • The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) dipped 0.3% month-over-month and was down 4% year-over-year.
  • Newly listed properties dropped 2% month-over-month, marking a fourth straight monthly decline.
  • The sales-to-new listings ratio eased to 52.3%, close to the long-term average of 54.9%.
  • National average home price was virtually unchanged at $673,335, down 0.1% year-over-year.

The big picture

The Canadian real estate market ended 2025 on a subdued note, reflecting a year marked by tariff-induced buyer hesitation early on, followed by a mid-year rally and a late-year stall. The strategic anomaly lies in the month-over-month decline being attributed to unrelated slowdowns in major cities, suggesting no clear trend line into 2026. The market remains balanced, with inventory levels and sales-to-new listings ratios close to long-term averages, setting the stage for a potential spring rebound driven by pent-up demand and stable interest rates.

What we're watching

Market Recovery
Whether the expected spring market rebound will materialize as pent-up demand and favorable interest rates drive activity.
Inventory Dynamics
The pace at which active listings decline as the spring market approaches, potentially tightening supply.
Price Stability
How price concessions by sellers in key markets like Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe will impact overall price trends.