Offshore Wind Recovery Hinges on Energy Security Push as 2030 Forecasts Dip
Event summary
- Global offshore wind capacity forecasts for 2030 reduced by 11% YoY to 119 GW outside China, reflecting auction delays and project timing issues.
- 2040 forecasts dropped 15% from Q2 2025 levels, signaling significant market recalibration.
- Q2 2026 saw 518 MW of new capacity outside China and 1.1 GW inside China, with full-year 2026 expected to reach ~15 GW.
- UK secured consent for three major projects (Dogger Bank South, North Falls) totaling 2 GW, with 20 GW forecast for 2026.
- Floating wind outlook reduced, with 3.1 GW expected to begin installation by 2030, led by UK, France, and Japan.
The big picture
The offshore wind sector faces short-term delivery challenges but stronger long-term fundamentals, with energy security concerns driving renewed political focus. While 2030 forecasts have been cut due to auction delays, the industry is poised for a large buildout through the next decade, supported by improving market conditions. The growing divide between attractive and less attractive markets will shape investment decisions, with floating wind emerging as a key growth area.
What we're watching
- Geopolitical Impact
- How Strait of Hormuz tensions and US tariffs will sustain inflationary pressure on key materials like steel and copper.
- Policy Momentum
- Whether energy security concerns will accelerate renewable ambitions in key markets like UK, France, and Germany.
- Project Pipeline
- The pace at which delayed projects progress to FID, particularly in APAC, where 8.8 GW of FIDs are forecast for 2026.
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