Semiconductor Equipment Sales Forecast Hits Record $229 Billion by 2028 on AI Boom
Event summary
- Global semiconductor equipment sales forecast to reach $229.5 billion by 2028, up from $165.9 billion in 2026 (23.2% YoY growth).
- Wafer Fab Equipment segment projected to hit $200 billion by 2028, driven by AI infrastructure and advanced memory demand.
- Test equipment sales expected to grow 31.0% to $15.3 billion in 2026, with assembly/packaging reaching $8.6 billion by 2028.
- China, Taiwan, and Korea remain top spending regions through 2028, with China leading despite moderating growth.
The big picture
SEMI's forecast highlights a five-year growth surge in semiconductor equipment sales, fueled by AI's demand for more powerful chips. The shift toward leading-edge logic, advanced memory, and back-end technologies reflects a broader industry realignment toward higher compute density and complex device architectures. With China, Taiwan, and Korea leading investment, regional dynamics will play a critical role in shaping the market's future.
What we're watching
- AI Infrastructure Demand
- How sustained AI-driven demand will affect long-term equipment spending trajectories.
- Regional Investment Shifts
- Whether China's moderating growth will impact its lead in semiconductor equipment spending.
- Technology Migration Pace
- The speed at which advanced-node capacity builds and HBM adoption will drive memory segment growth.
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