RSM US Middle Market Index Hits Cycle High on AI Spending Surge
Event summary
- RSM US Middle Market Business Index (MMBI) rose to 113.4 in Q2 2026, up from 107 in Q1, marking a business cycle peak.
- $1.6 trillion in AI-related capital expenditures driving non-residential investment growth.
- 57% of middle market firms increased capital expenditures in Q2, with 65% planning further acceleration.
- 53% of firms reported increased hiring in Q2, up from 45% in Q1, amid full employment conditions.
The big picture
The RSM US Middle Market Business Index's record high reflects a broader economic stabilization driven by AI investment, offsetting weaknesses in housing. Middle market firms' continued hiring and capital expenditure growth underscore their role as economic stabilizers despite inflation and geopolitical risks. The index's peak suggests strong mid-year confidence, though inflation and supply chain disruptions remain potential downside risks.
What we're watching
- AI Investment Momentum
- Whether $1.6 trillion in AI-related capital expenditures can sustain broader economic growth amid housing sector weakness.
- Inflation Perception
- How middle market firms' view of inflation as temporary may shift if Middle East supply shocks persist.
- Hiring Pressures
- The pace at which compensation increases will impact middle market profitability as firms compete for talent.
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