Hormuz Diversions Stabilize at Elevated Levels as Port Congestion Worsens
Event summary
- Weekly Hormuz diversions have plateaued at 4x pre-conflict baseline (4,635 vs. 1,118) for 12 consecutive weeks.
- Navi Mumbai import dwell time has reached 21 days, more than 5x its pre-conflict average.
- Mersin port's average import dwell has increased to 27.12 days while Abu Dhabi export dwell has tripled to 48.5 days in the past month.
- Intra-Gulf lanes dominate diversion activity, with Dubai (Jebel Ali) to Khawr Fakkan being the highest diversion lane.
The big picture
The Strait of Hormuz conflict has defied standard recovery curves, with diversions holding steady at elevated levels for months. This disruption is now spreading beyond the Strait itself, affecting key manufacturing feedstocks and causing significant port congestion in India and Turkey. The structural limits of carrier networks are being tested as the conflict enters a new phase defined by network shifts that may become permanent.
What we're watching
- Structural Shifts
- Whether the current diversion patterns will become permanent as carriers adapt to prolonged conflict.
- Port Capacity
- The pace at which congestion at key ports like Navi Mumbai and Mersin will ease or worsen.
- Geopolitical Escalation
- How the extension of Houthi blockade to Saudi Arabia and Red Sea will further impact global supply chains.
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