Hormuz Diversions Stabilize at Elevated Levels as Port Congestion Worsens
Event summary
- Weekly Hormuz diversions plateaued at 4,635 shipments (4x pre-conflict baseline) after 20 weeks of conflict.
- Intra-Gulf lanes dominate diversion activity, with Dubai-Khawr Fakkan seeing 3x more diversions than other routes.
- Navi Mumbai import dwell time reached 21 days (5x pre-conflict average), while Mundra sits at 10 days (2x baseline).
- Mersin and Abu Dhabi port congestion continues to climb, with export dwell times reaching 27.12 and 48.5 days respectively.
The big picture
The Hormuz conflict has defied typical recovery curves, with diversions stabilizing at elevated levels for 12 consecutive weeks. This suggests structural limits in carrier networks to reroute shipments around the Strait, which handles half of the world's urea exports and key petrochemical feedstocks. The disruption is now spreading beyond Hormuz as Houthi blockades extend to Saudi Arabia and the Red Sea, creating new network shifts that will likely have lasting consequences for global supply chains.
What we're watching
- Structural Shifts
- Whether the current diversion patterns will become permanent features of global shipping routes.
- Port Capacity
- How regional ports like Navi Mumbai and Mersin manage increasing congestion as they absorb diverted cargo.
- Commodity Flows
- The impact on global manufacturing supply chains as key petrochemical feedstocks face prolonged routing disruptions.