U.S.-China Trade Plunge Deepens as Southeast Asia Gains Ground
Event summary
- U.S. imports from China dropped 35% year-over-year in January 2026, accelerating from a 29% decline in 2025.
- Blank sailings across major routes fell to 11 in January 2026, down from a peak of 131 in April 2025.
- U.S. imports from Indonesia surged 35% in January 2026, while Thailand saw a 14% increase.
- U.S. exports to China declined 20% year-over-year in January 2026, following a brief 14% rise in December 2025.
The big picture
The sharp decline in U.S.-China trade underscores the lasting impact of tariffs and the accelerating shift toward Southeast Asian suppliers. With legal challenges to tariff authority unresolved, companies face prolonged uncertainty in strategic planning. The normalization of blank sailings suggests carriers have adapted to lower volumes, but the broader trade environment remains volatile.
What we're watching
- Trade Stability
- Whether U.S.-China trade volumes can stabilize amid ongoing tariff uncertainty and legal challenges.
- Sourcing Shift
- The pace at which Southeast Asia, particularly Indonesia and Thailand, replaces China as a key supplier.
- Capacity Adjustments
- How shipping carriers will further adjust capacity in response to sustained lower trade volumes.