Oliver Wyman Projects $11.3 Trillion Healthcare Cost Surge by 2040, AI and Robotics Could Offset 60% of Increases
Event summary
- Global healthcare spending is projected to rise from $11.8 trillion in 2025 to $23.1 trillion by 2040, driven by aging populations and labor shortages.
- $8.6 trillion of the projected increase is due to system inefficiencies, with AI, robotics, and quantum technology potentially offsetting up to 60% of cost increases.
- Oliver Wyman's analysis identifies potential net savings of $1.1 trillion annually by 2040 under incremental adoption scenarios, rising to $5.1 trillion in breakthrough scenarios.
- Five critical enablers for rapid adoption include technology infrastructure investment and reforms to reimbursement frameworks.
The big picture
Global healthcare systems are at a structural inflection point, with rising costs outpacing economic growth. The convergence of AI, robotics, and quantum technology presents a credible opportunity to reset healthcare productivity across clinical, administrative, and operational domains. This shift could catalyze new high-value innovation markets while addressing the productivity crisis in the sector.
What we're watching
- Adoption Pace
- The pace at which healthcare systems integrate AI and robotics will determine the scale of cost savings.
- Regulatory Shifts
- How innovation-friendly regulation evolves could accelerate or hinder technology adoption in healthcare.
- Market Dynamics
- Whether medical device and healthcare technology sectors can capitalize on the productivity reset opportunity.