Numerator Data Shows Inflation Cooling, but Consumer Pain Persists
Event summary
- Numerator's August 2026 Consumer Goods Price Index (CGPI) shows prices for everyday goods down 0.1% month-over-month, with year-over-year inflation cooling to 2.2% from 2.6% in July.
- Low-income and Gen Z consumers face higher cumulative inflation (34.9% and 38.8% since January 2018, respectively) due to higher spending on quick-service restaurants, which have seen prices rise 53.1% over the same period.
- 40.5% of consumers in Numerator's August 2026 Economic Sentiment Tracker cite rising prices as their top concern, surpassing previous highs.
- The CGPI, based on 7 million verified transactions monthly, correlates strongly (0.93) with the PCE Food and Beverage index since 2019.
The big picture
Numerator's data underscores a broader trend of decelerating inflation, but highlights persistent disparities in consumer experience. The cooling prices contrast with elevated consumer anxiety, suggesting structural shifts in spending habits and economic resilience. The CGPI's alignment with the PCE Food and Beverage index reinforces its reliability as a real-time inflation barometer.
What we're watching
- Inflation Disparity
- Whether low-income and Gen Z consumers will continue to experience disproportionately high inflation due to spending patterns.
- Regional Trends
- The pace at which regional inflation gaps, particularly in the Northeast, will narrow or widen.
- Consumer Behavior
- How sustained high economic sentiment concerns about prices will impact spending and brand loyalty.