Numerator Data Shows Inflation Decelerating in July 2026
Event summary
- Numerator's Consumer Goods Price Index (CGPI) showed a 0.4% decrease in prices for everyday household goods in July 2026, following a 0.7% increase in June.
- Year-over-year inflation cooled to 2.6% in July, down from 3.4% in June.
- Low-income and Gen Z consumers experienced higher inflation rates (35.1% and 39.0%, respectively) since January 2018 compared to the national average of 33.2%.
- Quick-service restaurant prices surged 53.9% since January 2018, significantly impacting low-income and Gen Z consumers.
- Numerator's Economic Sentiment Tracker revealed that 39% of U.S. consumers identified rising prices as their top concern for the coming year.
The big picture
Numerator's data highlights a deceleration in inflation for everyday household goods, reflecting broader economic trends. The disparity in inflation rates experienced by different demographic groups underscores the uneven impact of price changes across the population. As consumers adapt their purchasing behavior, the retail and quick-service restaurant sectors will need to monitor these shifts closely.
What we're watching
- Consumer Adaptation
- How consumers will continue to adapt their purchasing behavior as inflation cools but remains a top concern.
- Regional Disparities
- Whether the closing gap in inflation experienced by Southern consumers will persist or revert.
- Sector-Specific Inflation
- The pace at which quick-service restaurant prices will stabilize and their impact on low-income and Gen Z consumers.