SNAP Food Restriction Waivers to Impact 7.5M Households by 2026 End — Numerator

Event summary

SNAP spending fell 10% during the October–November 2025 government shutdown, with categories like hardware and fast food desserts seeing the largest pullbacks.
By the end of 2026, 19 states will have Food Restriction Waivers (FRWs) in place, affecting roughly one-third of SNAP participants.
Restricted categories like soda, candy, and energy drinks could see sales declines of up to $830 million due to FRWs.
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) has already reduced benefits for 54% of SNAP households aged 55 to 64 without dependents.
SNAP households are shifting towards value retailers like Sam’s Club, Dollar Tree, and Aldi, and away from online shopping.

The big picture

The implementation of Food Restriction Waivers and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) marks a significant shift in SNAP policy, impacting consumer behavior and retailer strategies. With 7.5 million households affected by the end of 2026, the changes highlight the growing intersection of government policy and consumer spending trends in the retail and consumer goods sectors.

What we're watching

Consumer Behavior Shift: How SNAP households will adapt to food restriction waivers and benefit reductions, particularly in terms of substituting restricted items with healthier alternatives.
Retailer Impact: Whether value retailers like Sam’s Club, Dollar Tree, and Aldi can sustain increased spending from SNAP households as online shopping declines.
Policy Enforcement: The pace at which states implement Food Restriction Waivers and the resulting impact on consumer spending patterns.