Northern Oil and Gas Reports Strong Ground Game Activity Amid Hedging Volatility — Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.

Event summary

NOG closed over 2,300 net acres and 6.2 net wells in Q2 via its Ground Game strategy.
Repurchased 2.95 million shares (~3% of outstanding) at an average price of $20.37.
Unrealized mark-to-market gains on derivatives estimated at $155M–$160M, offset by $85M–$90M in realized hedge losses.
Closed Duvernay acquisition for CA$237M cash and 3.7M common shares.
Q2 capital expenditures anticipated to be $190M–$200M.

The big picture

NOG’s Q2 update highlights its dual strategy of organic growth via Ground Game acquisitions and shareholder returns through buybacks, all while navigating hedging volatility. The company’s ability to execute on high-margin acreage deals in key basins like Permian, Williston, and Uinta underscores its non-operated model’s resilience. However, the broader industry’s pricing dynamics—particularly in Waha—remain a wildcard for production stability.

What we're watching

Hedging Strategy: Whether NOG’s hedging book can maintain de minimis gains/losses in H2 2026 amid volatile Waha pricing.
Production Recovery: The pace at which shut-in volumes return and whether Waha market normalization sustains higher margins.
Capital Discipline: How NOG balances aggressive Ground Game acquisitions with free cash flow generation.