U.S. Auto Theft Declines 23% Nationwide, but Tech-Driven Risks Persist
Event summary
- U.S. auto thefts declined by 23% in 2025 compared to 2024, following a 16.7% decrease in 2024 after peaking in 2023.
- California remains a hotspot, with over 50% of statewide thefts occurring in Southern California, particularly Los Angeles County.
- Thieves are shifting from traditional 'smash and grab' methods to exploiting keyless entry systems, relay attacks, and OBD port vulnerabilities.
- More than 85% of stolen vehicles were recovered in 2023.
The big picture
The decline in U.S. auto thefts marks a significant shift after years of increases, reflecting improved law enforcement efforts and heightened consumer awareness. However, the persistence of tech-driven theft methods underscores the need for continuous innovation in vehicle security. Mercury Insurance's analysis highlights the strategic importance of regional focus and technological adaptation in mitigating risks.
What we're watching
- Regional Hotspots
- Whether California, particularly Los Angeles County, can reduce theft rates despite being a primary hotspot.
- Technological Adaptation
- The pace at which automakers and insurers adapt to counter evolving tech-driven theft methods like relay attacks and OBD hacks.
- Insurance Premiums
- How sustained declines in auto theft rates will impact insurance premiums and underwriting practices.
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