Lassila & Tikanoja Cuts 2026 Profit Forecast on Weak Waste Management Margins
Event summary
- Revised 2026 outlook: Net sales EUR 420–450M (unchanged), adjusted EBITA lowered to EUR 33–38M from prior EUR 38–44M.
- H1 2026 net sales EUR 211.1M, adjusted EBITA EUR 10.1M—down from EUR 15.9M in H1 2025.
- Profitability pressured by lower waste volumes, higher fuel costs (EUR 3M increase), and declining gate fees for waste-to-energy.
- Company launching efficiency program and implementing temporary layoffs affecting up to 420 employees.
The big picture
Lassila & Tikanoja’s downgrade reflects broader challenges in the Nordic waste management sector, where oversupply of incineration capacity and fuel cost volatility are squeezing margins. The company’s revenue scale (EUR 426M in 2025) positions it as a key player, but its ability to adapt to structural market shifts will determine profitability recovery.
What we're watching
- Cost Control
- Whether efficiency measures and layoffs can offset declining waste volumes and fuel cost inflation.
- Market Dynamics
- The pace at which oversupply of waste incineration capacity in Finland depresses gate fees.
- Strategic Adjustments
- How price increases and operational restructuring impact customer relationships and long-term contracts.