Holiday Spending Outlook Brightens Despite Inflation and Tariff…

Event summary

43% of consumers plan to spend more during the 2026 holiday season, up from 39% expecting to spend the same and 18% planning to spend less.
59% of consumers cite product pricing and inflation as their top concern, with 45% blaming import tariffs and 18% pointing to product shortages.
73% of consumers now consider free shipping standard, while 48% expect two-day delivery and 47% demand free returns.
82% of shoppers say return policies are important or very important in their purchasing decisions.
60% of consumers are likely to use AI tools for holiday shopping, with over half expecting to buy at least 20% of gifts via social media.

The big picture

Despite economic concerns, consumers are maintaining or increasing holiday spending, driven by a value-first mindset. Retailers and logistics providers must navigate rising delivery expectations, the influence of AI and social commerce, and persistent inflationary pressures. Kenco's findings highlight the critical role of supply chain transparency in shaping consumer trust and loyalty during the peak season.

What we're watching

Delivery Expectations: How retailers will adapt to rising consumer demands for faster, free shipping and transparent return policies.
AI and Social Commerce: The pace at which AI tools and social media platforms will reshape holiday shopping behaviors.
Inflation and Tariffs: Whether persistent price pressures will force retailers to adjust pricing strategies or seek alternative supply chain solutions.