Truckload Capacity Tightens Despite Soft Demand as Reefer Markets Show Early 2026 Strain
Event summary
- Dry van load-to-truck ratios hit 9.9 in December 2025, the highest in the current market downcycle, driven by holiday demand and winter storms.
- Reefer capacity remains tight with spot rates rising 18% above the five-year average due to winter produce season and carrier selectivity.
- U.S. container imports fell 5.9% year-over-year in December 2025, with full-year 2025 volumes down 0.4% from 2024.
- Warehouse utilization dropped to historically low levels in December 2025 as retailers adopted lean inventory strategies.
- Consumer confidence declined for the fifth consecutive month, with the Conference Board index falling to 89.1 in December 2025.
The big picture
ITS Logistics' January 2026 report highlights a paradox in the transportation markets: tightening capacity despite soft demand, driven by carrier exits and regulatory pressures. The report also underscores the impact of cautious consumer spending on port volumes and warehousing strategies, signaling a potential shift in inventory management practices. These trends suggest that logistics operators will need to navigate a more volatile market environment in 2026, with capacity constraints and cost pressures likely to persist.
What we're watching
- Capacity Constraints
- How sustained carrier exits and regulatory changes will impact truckload markets in 2026, even with soft demand.
- Inventory Strategy
- Whether retailers can maintain lean inventory strategies amid rising warehousing costs and labor pressures.
- Consumer Spending
- The pace at which consumer confidence and spending will recover in 2026, influencing port volumes and logistics demand.