January's Deep Freeze Slows Small Business Foot Traffic, Fiserv Data Reveals

Event summary

  • Fiserv's Small Business Index declined 1 point to 143 in January 2026, with year-over-year sales growth of 0.7% but a month-over-month drop of 0.5%.
  • Consumer foot traffic fell 2.0% year-over-year, the sharpest decline since mid-2022, driven by harsh winter storms.
  • Discretionary spending softened (-0.4% year-over-year, -0.7% month-over-month), while essential sales remained stable (+2.2% year-over-year).
  • Restaurant sales dropped 1.8% year-over-year, with limited-service restaurants seeing the largest declines (-3.4% year-over-year).
  • Professional and administrative services saw pockets of strength, with tax preparation services growing 9.3% year-over-year.

The big picture

Fiserv's data highlights the vulnerability of small businesses to seasonal shifts and extreme weather events. The decline in foot traffic and discretionary spending suggests a broader trend of consumer caution following the holiday season. As small businesses navigate these challenges, the resilience of service-based sectors and the impact of weather-related disruptions will be critical factors to monitor.

What we're watching

Weather Impact
How prolonged winter weather will affect small business recovery in February and beyond.
Consumer Spending
Whether discretionary spending will rebound as consumers adjust post-holiday season.
Service Sector Growth
The pace at which service-based businesses can sustain their growth momentum.