Equipment Finance Demand Cools from Record High but Remains Historically Strong
Event summary
- August 2026 CapEx Finance Index shows demand cooled from July's record high but remained the second strongest month in survey history.
- Total new business volume (NBV) was $11.8 billion, down 17.3% from July but up 19.1% year-over-year.
- Full-year forecast for equipment deal volume raised to $137.7 billion, the highest level since the survey began in 2006.
- Average loss rate fell to its lowest level in ten months, while delinquencies held near the low end of their two-year range.
- Credit approval rate declined for a second month, falling 2.0 percentage points to 75.4%.
The big picture
The equipment finance sector remains robust despite a cooling in demand from July's record highs. The industry is benefiting from strong credit quality and historically high deal volumes, though it faces risks from potential Fed rate hikes and elevated energy prices. The full-year forecast suggests 2026 will be the best year ever for new deal volumes, validating the sector's resilience amid broader economic uncertainties.
What we're watching
- Interest Rate Sensitivity
- How additional Fed rate hikes will affect delinquencies and losses despite current credit quality health.
- Sector-Specific Demand
- Whether AI-driven spending surge in July will lead to sustained demand or further volatility in equipment finance.
- Credit Market Dynamics
- The pace at which credit approval rates stabilize following two consecutive months of decline.