Egan-Jones Warns of State-Level Risk Exposure for Private Commercial Assets
Event summary
- Egan-Jones released an analysis on September 3, 2026, highlighting the rising risk of state-level conflicts impacting private commercial assets.
- Ukraine's drone attacks on Russia-based Wildberries facilities caused 2.0 million square meters of damage, about 4% of Amazon's North American space.
- Wildberries revised its terms to disclaim liability for force majeure events, shifting costs to small merchants and insurers.
- Egan-Jones notes that defenders pay 20x–600x the attacker's unit cost for passive hardening, making it unsustainable at scale.
The big picture
Egan-Jones' analysis underscores a strategic anomaly where the falling cost of long-range attacks has exposed private commercial assets to state-level conflict risk. While deterrence between nuclear states remains intact, the cost of inflicting serious damage has collapsed, making commercial infrastructure vulnerable. This shift poses significant credit and operational risks for merchants, insurers, and lenders, highlighting the need for robust risk assessment and mitigation strategies.
What we're watching
- Credit Risk
- How the shifting of losses to merchants, insurers, and lenders will impact credit markets and private positions.
- Operational Resilience
- Whether businesses with asset-heavy private positions have examined state-level exposure and documented key risk factors.
- Strategic Targeting
- The pace at which businesses supporting state military efforts become targets for long-range attacks.
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