UPI Fuels Credit Card Surge in India as Pix Dethrones Cards in Brazil
Event summary
- Credit cards in India are growing at a 23% CAGR through 2028, outpacing UPI (15%) and international cards (6%), driven by domestic networks like RuPay.
- Pix overtook cards as Brazil's dominant e-commerce payment method in 2025, with 42% of transaction value, and is projected to reach 50% by 2028.
- Local card schemes in Nigeria and Egypt are expanding via debit cards, with Verve issuing 100 million cards in Nigeria.
- Pix Automático, launched in June 2025, is growing at 41% monthly, enabling recurring transactions for services like streaming.
- Stablecoins are used by 15-20% of populations in Brazil, Argentina, Thailand, Vietnam, and Turkey for value preservation and cross-border transactions.
The big picture
Emerging markets are reshaping global payments by blending local infrastructure with innovative solutions. The rise of credit cards in India and Pix in Brazil reflects a broader trend where local schemes adapt faster to consumer behavior than global rails. This structural shift is also driving the adoption of stablecoins and AI-driven commerce, positioning these regions as leaders in payment innovation.
What we're watching
- Localization Strategy
- How local payment schemes will continue to outpace global players by leveraging deep market understanding and regulatory frameworks.
- Stablecoin Adoption
- The pace at which stablecoins will integrate into mainstream commerce in emerging markets facing inflation and currency controls.
- AI Commerce
- Whether agentic commerce will shift e-commerce competition towards pricing, reliability, and trust over sophisticated storefronts.
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