Deloitte Projects 4% to 4.8% Growth in 2026 Holiday Retail Sales — Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited

Event summary

Deloitte forecasts holiday retail sales between $1.70 trillion and $1.71 trillion for November 2026 to January 2027, up 4% to 4.8% YoY.
E-commerce holiday sales expected to reach $316.1 billion to $318.9 billion, growing 7.5% to 8.4% YoY.
Disposable personal income (DPI) projected to rise 4.5% to 5.2%, a key driver of retail and e-commerce sales.
Consumers are prioritizing value-seeking behaviors, including brand and retailer switching and promotion usage.

The big picture

Deloitte's forecast reflects a continued shift toward digital shopping channels, with e-commerce outpacing overall retail growth. The emphasis on value-seeking behaviors suggests a more competitive holiday season for retailers, as consumers prioritize promotions and brand flexibility. The projected 4% to 4.8% increase in holiday sales aligns with steady economic recovery trends, though e-commerce's rapid expansion could reshape traditional retail strategies.

What we're watching

E-commerce Acceleration: The pace at which e-commerce adoption will outstrip in-store sales growth, driven by digital tools and promotions.
Consumer Spending Shifts: How value-seeking behaviors will impact brand loyalty and retailer market share during the holiday season.
Economic Indicators: Whether disposable personal income growth sustains retail sales momentum amid broader economic conditions.