Contract Truckload Rates Surge Despite Volume Decline
Event summary
- DAT Solutions reported record June-to-July increases in contract rates for dry van (+13¢/mile) and reefer (+9¢/mile) freight.
- Freight volumes declined across all equipment types, with reefer TVI down 5% MoM and 13% YoY—the steepest drop in six years.
- Spot and contract rates reached parity for dry van freight at $2.39/mile (linehaul), while reefer spot rates remained 13¢ higher than contracts.
- Fuel surcharges decreased slightly but were still 20–23¢/mile higher than July 2025 levels.
The big picture
The disconnect between rising contract rates and falling freight volumes suggests a market where available capacity is driving pricing more than demand. This dynamic could signal broader shifts in carrier behavior or operational constraints, particularly as spot and contract rates align for dry van freight—a rare occurrence in historical data.
What we're watching
- Capacity Constraints
- How sustained capacity tightness will affect contract rate negotiations in the coming months.
- Seasonal Trends
- Whether the steep reefer volume decline signals broader structural shifts beyond typical seasonal patterns.
- Fuel Costs
- The pace at which fuel surcharges may rebound, given their year-over-year increase despite recent declines.