Cox Automotive Raises 2026 U.S. Auto Sales Forecast Amid Asian Brand Surge — Cox Automotive, Inc.

Event summary

Cox Automotive raised its full-year 2026 U.S. new-vehicle sales forecast to 16.1 million units from 15.8 million, citing resilient demand despite economic headwinds.
September 2026 sales expected to increase 6.5% year-over-year but decline 2.7% month-over-month due to seasonal factors.
Asian automakers are forecast to capture over 50% of U.S. new-vehicle sales for a second consecutive quarter, while Detroit 3 market share falls to record lows.
Retail sales now projected at 13.1 million units and fleet sales at 3 million units for 2026.
Used-vehicle market forecast at 20.5 million retail sales and 38.5 million total sales for 2026.

The big picture

The automotive market is demonstrating unexpected resilience in 2026, with Cox Automotive raising its full-year sales forecast despite economic challenges. This resilience is being driven by affluent consumers, improved credit availability, and strong demand for Asian-brand vehicles, particularly in hybrid and passenger car segments. The market share shift toward Asian automakers represents a significant structural change in the U.S. automotive industry, with potential long-term implications for domestic manufacturers.

What we're watching

Market Share Dynamics: How the continued shift toward Asian brands will impact Detroit 3 automakers' long-term strategies and potential restructuring efforts.
Economic Resilience: Whether consumer demand for new vehicles can sustain current levels through Q4 2026 amid persistent inflation and high interest rates.
Used Vehicle Market: The pace at which used vehicle sales recover from 2025 levels and how this affects new vehicle pricing strategies.