U.S. New-Vehicle Sales Rebound in February but Lag Behind 2025 Levels
Event summary
- February 2026 new-vehicle sales forecasted at 1.19 million units, down 3.4% year-over-year but up 6.9% month-over-month.
- Seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.6 million, below February 2025's 16.0 million but above January 2026's 14.9 million.
- Mid-size SUV/crossover segment shows 6.5% year-over-year growth, while compact SUV/crossover declines 9.9%.
- High vehicle prices, economic uncertainty, and loss of EV tax credits cited as key headwinds.
- Potential short-term boost from higher tax refunds expected due to the 'Big Beautiful Bill' passed in July 2025.
The big picture
The U.S. automotive market continues to face headwinds from economic uncertainty and high vehicle prices, with February's sales rebound from January's weather-impacted levels still falling short of last year's performance. The segment-specific trends highlight shifting consumer preferences, while potential policy impacts and tax refund timing could create short-term volatility in the coming months. Cox Automotive's forecast underscores the broader challenges facing automakers and dealers in navigating a complex market environment.
What we're watching
- Economic Sensitivity
- How ongoing economic concerns will affect consumer confidence and new-vehicle demand throughout 2026.
- Segment Performance
- Whether the mid-size SUV/crossover segment can sustain its growth amid broader market declines.
- Policy Impact
- The pace at which changes in tax credits and other policies influence EV and overall vehicle sales.
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