U.S. New-Vehicle Sales Pace Holds Steady in March Amid Middle East Uncertainty
Event summary
- March 2026 new-vehicle sales pace forecast at 15.8 million, unchanged from February but down 12% year-over-year.
- Q1 2026 new-vehicle sales expected to finish 6.5% lower than Q1 2025, with EV sales down 28% year-over-year.
- Full-year 2026 sales outlook remains at 15.8 million, unchanged from the beginning of the year.
- Smaller vehicles and full-size trucks/SUVs saw declines, while midsize segments showed growth.
- Toyota and Hyundai expected to deliver solid share growth in Q1.
The big picture
The U.S. new-vehicle market has settled into a slower rhythm in early 2026, following a year of policy-driven volatility. The market is now constrained by affordability challenges, geopolitical uncertainty, and broader economic pressures. Cox Automotive's forecast suggests a smaller, slower-growth market, with uneven demand across different vehicle segments and brands. The full-year outlook remains cautious, with potential downside risks if current geopolitical tensions persist.
What we're watching
- Geopolitical Risk
- Whether prolonged Middle East tensions will create additional downside risk for vehicle demand.
- EV Market Dynamics
- How the loss of federal tax incentives will continue to impact EV sales despite rising fuel prices.
- Affordability Pressures
- The pace at which higher vehicle prices and elevated interest rates will constrain market growth.
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