U.S. New-Vehicle Sales Slow in January 2026 Amid Economic Headwinds and Harsh Weather
Event summary
- January 2026 new-vehicle sales forecasted at 15.3 million SAAR, down from 15.5 million in January 2025 and 16.1 million in December 2025.
- Sales volume expected to reach 1.14 million, up 3.2% year-over-year but down 23.5% month-over-month.
- Harsh winter weather and economic concerns contributed to the slowdown.
- Full-size pickup trucks saw a 10.3% year-over-year increase, while mid-size SUVs/crossovers dropped 32.2% month-over-month.
- Cox Automotive forecasts 2026 new-vehicle sales to decline to 15.8 million from 16.3 million in 2025.
The big picture
The automotive market is facing a more subdued outlook for 2026, shaped by economic uncertainties and the loss of EV tax incentives. While 2025 outperformed expectations, the industry now confronts headwinds that will likely dampen demand. The January slowdown highlights the sensitivity of the market to both seasonal factors and broader economic conditions.
What we're watching
- Economic Headwinds
- How slower economic growth and softer job creation will affect new-vehicle demand throughout 2026.
- Tax Refund Impact
- Whether higher-than-usual tax refunds will provide a meaningful boost to auto sales in the coming months.
- EV Market Dynamics
- The pace at which the loss of EV tax incentives will continue to impact overall new-vehicle sales.
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