Covista Projects U.S. Healthcare Workforce Shortage to Nearly Double by 2040
Event summary
- Covista's Healthcare Workforce Index projects the U.S. healthcare workforce shortage will nearly double by 2040 without intervention.
- A combined approach of workforce investment and care delivery innovation could close 92% of the projected gap.
- The nursing shortage alone could save nearly 100,000 lives by 2040 if addressed, while closing the physician gap could add over six months to average life expectancy.
- Unfilled healthcare positions cost the average U.S. family $430 annually today, rising to $1,250 by 2040 if unaddressed.
- Investing in talent—attracting, developing, and retaining clinicians—could close over half of the 2040 gap.
The big picture
Covista's research underscores the structural challenges of the U.S. healthcare workforce shortage, highlighting the need for coordinated action across the ecosystem. The projected doubling of the shortage by 2040 signals a critical inflection point for healthcare delivery and policy, with significant implications for patient outcomes and household costs. The solution requires a multifaceted approach, combining workforce investment with technological and care delivery innovations.
What we're watching
- Talent Pipeline
- Whether health systems will prioritize long-term talent investment over short-term fixes to address the shortage.
- Care Delivery Innovation
- The pace at which AI, therapeutics, and care model redesign can ease demand-side pressure without replacing the need for clinicians.
- Stakeholder Coordination
- How health systems, policymakers, and educators will collaborate to reshape the care delivery model and talent pipeline.