Commercial Lending Growth Stalls as Tech Divide Widens
Event summary
- Cornerstone Advisors' 2026 Commercial Lending Outlook predicts modest growth amid rising competition from nonbank and private credit providers.
- CRE and C&I portfolios remain top priorities for lenders, with 60% of bankers expecting AI to moderately impact underwriting processes.
- 70% of institutions report little improvement in loan production despite CRM investments, highlighting a technology-execution gap.
- Only 4% of lenders feel strong competitive pressure today, but over half acknowledge growing threats from private credit providers.
The big picture
Cornerstone Advisors' report underscores a commercial lending market where demand isn't the constraint—execution is. As nonbank competitors gain traction and technology expectations rise, traditional lenders face pressure to modernize faster or risk falling behind. The divide between digital leaders and laggards appears poised to grow, with implications for market consolidation and deal flow dynamics.
What we're watching
- Tech Execution Gap
- How the widening divide between data-driven lenders and those relying on manual processes will impact market share.
- Private Credit Threat
- Whether traditional banks can sustain competitive advantages as private credit providers expand into underserved segments.
- AI Adoption Pace
- The pace at which AI will transition from expectation to reality in commercial lending workflows.
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